Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
